Open models went from 11 to 29 percent of traffic in two months

The numbers don't come from a survey or an analyst's forecast. They come from Vercel's own gateway - the layer through which other people's apps call the models. This is real production traffic, paid for with real money, for the period through the end of June. That's why it's worth reading closely, not skimming.

Watch where the money goes, not where the tokens go. Open won the volume - the bulk, cheap, repetitive work. But 61 percent of text spend goes to one provider that does only a third of the volume. So the hard stuff is still paid for dearly, and it's paid to a few. The market isn't leveling out. It's splitting into two.

Open took the volume. Closed held onto the money.

The other number is quieter and more important. The price per token stopped falling. Until now, anyone building on models carried an unspoken assumption in the back of their mind - next year it'll be half the price, let's wait. June says otherwise. Cheap volume pulls the average price down, frontier models get more expensive and push it back up - it comes out even. If your product's math only survives on future price drops, June is the month it stopped working.

The visual is generated code-art, no third-party images.